In the coming decades, computing will evolve in ways that will redefine how organisations operate and how humans interact with technology. Gartner envisions this future unfolding across three key horizons, each marking a distinct phase of technological evolution.
As we look toward the future, business leaders must prepare for the radical shifts that will come with advancements in computing power and systems.
Horizon 1: Federated computing (2 to 5 years)
In the near term, there will be an increasing focus on edge, cloud and spatial computing. This phase will see the proliferation of AI agents working within interconnected networks to optimise business outcomes autonomously. Edge computing, spatial computing devices, and special-purpose chips will dominate this horizon, offering faster, decentralised processing power closer to where data is generated.
Automation and human augmentation will be key use cases across horizons, including Horizon 1. For automation, developments such as machine customers and autonomous smart robotic operations will become more widespread. In human augmentation, AI will drive advances such as wearable technologies that make active recommendations and spatial medical evaluations. However, this era is characterized mostly by its constraints. Demand for electricity will exceed supply, and challenges around data storage, digital sovereignty and data trust issues will limit capabilities.
To thrive during Horizon 1, start tackling more ambitious use cases because of the higher cost of computing, start embracing renewable energy sources in the absence of energy-efficient computing, and enforce discipline in a decentralized space.
Horizon 2: The rise of hybrid computing (5 to 10 years)
By Horizon 2, the future of computing will transition into a hybrid model, where classical computing will coexist with cutting-edge systems including quantum, neuromorphic, and photonic computing. It will be the era of “everything at the same time”. These fundamentally different computing styles will require complex orchestration, and the focus will be on integrating them into cohesive systems that work together for unprecedented business capabilities.
While quantum computing is often seen as the future, the second horizon will be about balancing multiple computing forms that coexist to solve increasingly complex problems. The applications of this hybrid computing era will likely include autonomous logistics, polyfunctional robots, and advanced AI use cases such as personalised medicine based on genetic data, for example.
The Horizon 2 will bring with it significant cost implications, as the complexity of orchestrating these different computing styles drives up expenses. However, the energy efficiency of these emerging technologies will help offset the power constraints that characterised Horizon 1. Businesses will need to focus on distributed data management in order to be ready for Horizon 2.
Horizon 3: Autonomous and self-architecting systems (10+ Years)
This horizon goes beyond making predictions and delves into the realm of “what if,”. In Horizon 3, computing will reach an era of true machine autonomy. Machines will evolve to be self-maintaining, self-repairing and self-architecting, requiring minimal human intervention and exploring radical new forms of computing such as biocomputing and carbon nanotube computing.
This phase will see the rise of entirely new capabilities, such as autonomous weather control, space manufacturing, and profound innovations in human augmentation—including technologies that could offload human memory or enhance neurological capabilities through chip implantation.
At the core of this stage are two seemingly contrasting worldviews: hyperhumanity, which focuses on embedding computing into the human body, and hypermachinity, which seeks to remove humans from systems to optimise outcomes. These perspectives, while seemingly at odds, both rely on the idea of rationality. Rational systems without human intervention are better systems, and rational human beings are better human beings.
To prepare, focus on long-term moonshot projects and embrace discussions about the ethical implications of emerging technologies, from AI-driven systems to human augmentation.
As computing technology continues to evolve through these three horizons, the decisions organisations make today will have lasting impacts on not only business, but society. By Horizon 3, the technical constraints we face today will largely disappear, leaving us with decisions about the kind of future we want to build. Whether through autonomous systems or integrated human augmentation, the future of computing is set to redefine every aspect of business and society.
Frank Buytendijk
Frank Buytendijk, Distinguished VP Analyst, Chief Research at Gartner will be discussing this topic further at Gartner IT Symposium/Xpo taking place in Barcelona, Spain, from 4-7th of November 2024.
